@InProceedings{DrükeBSWPCBT:2021:ClHyTr,
               author = "Dr{\"u}ke, Markus and Bloh, Werner v. and Sakschewski, Boris and 
                         Wunderling, Nico and Petri, Stefan and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira 
                         and Barbosa, Henrique and Thonicke, Kirsten",
          affiliation = "{Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research} and {} and 
                         {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research} and {Potsdam 
                         Institute for Climate Impact Research} and {Potsdam Institute for 
                         Climate Impact Research} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and 
                         {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research}",
                title = "Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in the 
                         fire-enabled Earth system model CM2Mc-LPJmL",
                 year = "2021",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly",
            publisher = "EGU",
             abstract = "Tropical rainforests are recognized as one of the terrestrial 
                         tipping elements which could have profound impacts on the global 
                         climate, once their vegetation has transitioned into savanna or 
                         grassland states. While several studies investigated the 
                         savannization of, e.g., the Amazon rainforest, few studies 
                         considered the influence of fire. Fire is expected to potentially 
                         shift the savanna-forest boundary and hence impact the dynamical 
                         equilibrium between these two possible vegetation states under 
                         changing climate. To investigate the climate-induced hysteresis in 
                         pan-tropical forests and the impact of fire under future climate 
                         conditions, we coupled the well established and comprehensively 
                         validated Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJmL5.0-FMS to the 
                         coupled climate model CM2Mc, which is based on the atmosphere 
                         model AM2 and the ocean model MOM5 (CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0). In CM2Mc, 
                         we replaced the simple land surface model LaD with LPJmL and fully 
                         coupled the water and energy cycles. Exchanging LaD by LPJmL, and 
                         therefore switching from a static and prescribed vegetation to a 
                         dynamic vegetation, allows us to model important biosphere 
                         processes, including wildfire, tree mortality, permafrost, 
                         hydrological cycling, and the impacts of managed land (crop growth 
                         and irrigation). With CM2Mc-LPJmL we conducted simulation 
                         experiments where atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased from a 
                         pre-industrial level up to 1280 ppm (impact phase) followed by a 
                         recovery phase where CO2 concentrations reach pre-industrial 
                         levels again. This experiment is performed with and without 
                         allowing for wildfires. We find a hysteresis of the biomass and 
                         vegetation cover in tropical forest systems, with a strong 
                         regional heterogeneity. After biomass loss along increasing 
                         atmospheric CO2 concentrations and accompanied mean surface 
                         temperature increase of about 4°C (impact phase), the system does 
                         not recover completely into its original state on its return path, 
                         even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations return to their 
                         original state. While not detecting large-scale tipping points, 
                         our results show a climate-induced hysteresis in tropical forest 
                         and lagged responses in forest recovery after the climate has 
                         returned to its original state. Wildfires slightly widen the 
                         climate-induced hysteresis in tropical forests and lead to a 
                         lagged response in forest recovery by ca. 30 years.",
  conference-location = "Online",
      conference-year = "19-30 apr.",
                  doi = "10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8908",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8908",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "EGU21-8908-print.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}